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Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Keeps Strong National Lead, But Pennsylvania, Florida Tighten

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Topline
Polls out Thursday indicate the race between Joe Biden and President Trump appears unchanged nationally but more volatile at the state level, as another national survey showed the Democratic nominee ahead by almost double digits, but holding a narrow lead in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania.Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden talks with members of the United Steelworkers union in a supporter’s back yard September 09, 2020 in Detroit, Michigan. Biden is campaigning in Michigan, which President Donald Trump won in 2016 by less than 11,000 votes, the narrowest margin of victory in state’s presidential election history. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Key Facts
National polls have barely moved in the last several weeks, and a Monmouth University poll — conducted September 3-8 in a survey of 758 voters — out Thursday showed more of the same: Biden leads Trump 51%-42% among registered voters and 51%-44% among likely voters.

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Biden’s polling margin versus Trump has shrunk in Pennsylvania and Florida in recent days, and a host of state-by-state polls published Thursday reflects that: Biden leads Trump by just 3 points in Pennsylvania (49%-46%) and 2 points in Florida (48%-46%), according to polls conducted by Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group.

In Florida, Biden’s lead has shrunk over Trump by 2.6 points on average since mid-August, and now stands at just 2.8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

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Biden’s lead over Trump has dropped by 1.4 points in Pennsylvania during the same period, and now sits at 5 points.

Surprising Fact
Polls out Thursday continue to show Biden polling well with seniors as compared to Hillary Clinton four years ago. The Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group Pennsylvania poll shows Biden leading Trump by 11 points (53%-42%). In 2016, Trump won seniors by 10 points, according to exit polls.

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Tangent
A Morning Consult poll released Thursday found Trump leading Biden by 10 points among military-affiliated voters, even after The Atlantic reported the president had called fallen soldiers “losers” and “suckers.”

Key Background
Biden has just a 6% chance of winning the Electoral College if he wins the popular vote by 0-1 points over Trump, a 22% chance if he wins by 1-2 points and a 46% chance if he beats Trump by 2-3 points, according to models reported by FiveThirtyEight. In 2016, Hillary Clinton topped Trump by 2.1 points in the popular vote, but fell in the Electoral College.

 

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